News: Beijing is using Chinese tourists to inflict economic pain – but does it work?
With more middle-class Chinese travelling to destinations all over the world, their valuable tourist dollars have become a means for Beijing to exert pressure on other governments, like Taipei.
But while travel restrictions on mainland citizens can have a big economic impact, observers say they may not be an effective way to help Beijing achieve its aims.
Taiwan was caught off guard on Wednesday when Beijing
announced it would bar citizens from 47 mainland cities from travelling to the self-ruled island as individual tourists.
The mainland ban on individual tourist visas began on August 1, with no stated end date, and was due to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s “consistent efforts to push Taiwanese independence activities and incite hostility to the mainland”, Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office said.
Cross-strait ties between mainland China and Taiwan, over which Beijing claims sovereignty, have deteriorated under the independence-leaning administration of President Tsai Ing-wen.
Lin Ying-yu, assistant professor of international relations at National Chung Cheng University, said the restriction on mainland tourists was one of several steps Beijing had taken against Taiwan in recent months, following a fighter jet incursion in the Taiwan Strait in March and recent military drills by the People’s Liberation Army near the island.
“These are all part of efforts to pressure Taiwan, using measures that are less friendly to Taiwan like removing individual tourist visas,” he said. “You can see from all of these things that China is taking harder-line policies against Taiwan recently.”
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Taiwan is the latest example of Beijing using mainland tourists as a lever against other governments. The China Tourism Academy estimated that Chinese travellers spent more than US$120 billion in 2018 on a total of 149.7 million outbound trips taken that year, according to government data.
Beijing wielded the tourism stick similarly when tensions rose with South Korea in 2017 over the deployment of a US Terminal High Altitude Area Defence System (THAAD) there, fearing the missile shield would threaten its security.
China’s ban on group tours to South Korea halved the number of Chinese tourists to the country, costing an estimated 7.5 trillion won (US$6.24 billion) in losses, according to government data.
The total number of mainland visitors plummeted in 2017 to 4.2 million from 8.1 million the year before, official numbers show.
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Even after tensions eased between the countries, Chinese visitor numbers have not returned to former levels, with the total for the first half of this year still down by 1 million from the same period in 2016.
But the move did not stop South Korea from deploying the THAAD system – instead, it made China unpopular with its neighbours.
In 2017, China’s rating in an opinion poll of South Koreans by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies slumped from 4.31 in January to 3.21 in March on a 0-10 scale, with 10 representing the most favourable.
Zhang Baohui, director of the Centre for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, noted the economic cost of a Chinese tourism boycott.
“Chinese travellers have a big impact on the tourist industries of places such as South Korea and Taiwan, and tourism can be an effective way to apply economic pressure,” Zhang said.
“But the deployment of THAAD is a national security issue for South Korea, and Seoul won’t abandon this just because of economic losses.”
China has used similar tactics against Palau, an archipelago nation in the Pacific and one of Taiwan’s few remaining diplomatic allies.
In November 2017, Beijing stopped group tours to the country, ostensibly to pressure Palau to switch diplomatic recognition to the mainland Chinese government.
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As a result, the number of Chinese visitors fell 22.7 per cent in the third and fourth quarters of 2017, according to the South Pacific Tourism Organisation. Mainland Chinese tourist numbers had grown rapidly in the years before the ban – from less than 1,000 in 2010 to peak at more than 90,000 in 2016. But they slid post-ban from 70,741 in 2016 to just 55,491 the next year, government data showed.
Palau has maintained diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
More recently, as Beijing and Washington have clashed in a year-long trade war, China issued a travel advisory for the United States
in early June, citing immigration checks and home interviews as methods US law enforcement agencies used to “harass” Chinese travellers.
China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism also released a separate advisory about safety in the US, mentioning frequent shootings, robberies and theft.
China also officially warned Chinese students and scholars seeking to head to the US to “raise their risk assessment”, given increased visa delays and denials of student applications.
In Taiwan, the number of mainland visitors had been declining in recent years compared to years when Ma Ying-jeou, from the mainland-friendly Kuomintang party, was president.
Tourist arrivals from the mainland fell from 4.2 million in 2015, when Ma was in office, to 2.7 million last year under Tsai, according to Taiwanese government data.
Taiwanese authorities said Beijing’s ban on solo travellers could result in 700,000 fewer arrivals over the next six months, which may cost the island NT$28 billion (US$890.75 million) in lost revenue.
While the impact has yet to be seen, critics have accused Beijing of attempting to influence Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election and say there should not be heavy reliance on mainland China for economic development.
Zhang also noted that Tsai’s support for the wave of protests in Hong Kong stemming from a now-shelved extradition bill could also have drawn Beijing’s ire.
“The Tsai Ing-wen administration has been talking a lot about the Hong Kong protests recently,” Zhang said. “It’s possible that through restricting tourists from going to the island, Beijing is telling Tsai that there is a price to pay if she uses Hong Kong to make political gains.”
Beijing’s ban on individual Taiwan visits ‘a big mistake’, says President Tsai Ing-wen
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has described mainland China’s ban on individual visits to the island as “a big mistake strategically” as her government announced that it would relax its rules on mainlanders visiting family members.
The mainland’s culture and tourism ministry said that starting on Thursday, it would stop issuing individual travel permits to Taiwan for people in 47 mainland cities because of the poor state of relations with the self-ruled island.
Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing, said the decision had been made because Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party has pushed for independence and stirred up division between Taipei and Beijing.
“This has seriously damaged the foundation for letting mainland citizens travel to Taiwan as individual tourists,” Ma said.
But Tsai said the measure – which is expected to cost the island an estimated US$900 million in lost revenue – would “punish all people in Taiwan” regardless of their political affiliation, instead of only hitting the DPP.
She said that by using its people as a “political tool” the mainland would only cause resentment, adding that politics should never affect tourism as that would only hurt the sector.
Tsai said young people from the mainland had the right to visit Taiwan and experience its free and democratic lifestyle.
“Individual visits like these are the best way for mainland youths to understand Taiwan,” she said, adding she felt sorry for young people from the mainland who would be deprived of such exchanges, which help to increase understanding between the two sides.
Tsai also criticised Beijing for its sabre-rattling military drills in the run-up to the island’s presidential elections in January, saying its actions were to blame for regional instability.
Beijing considers Taiwan as a wayward province that must be reunified with the mainland – by force if necessary. It has suspended official exchanges with Taiwan since Tsai took office in 2016 and refused to accept the one-China principle as the basis for cross-strait relations.
To offset the possible economic impact of the ban, Taiwan’s interior ministry announced on Thursday that it would relax the rules governing mainlanders visiting their Taiwanese relatives.
“The relaxation, effective from Thursday, is aimed to allow more mainlanders to visit Taiwan and understand the situation here,” a ministry’s spokesman said, adding that Beijing’s latest ban serves only to prove that there is no freedom of travel for mainlanders.
The new measure, although largely symbolic, would allow distant relatives such as the in-laws of Taiwanese people and their brothers or sisters to visit Taiwan for three months. Before the relaxation, only blood relatives were allowed to do so.
Taiwanese analysts said that while the ban was an attempt to influence the upcoming presidential election, Beijing also hoped to prevent mainlanders learning more about the ongoing protests in Hong Kong and the views of city residents.
“The anti-extradition bill movement has already escalated to public calls for general elections in Hong Kong,” said Tung Li-wen, professor of public security at Central Police University in Taoyuan.
He said many Hong Kong people had tried to explain to their mainland compatriots why they were protesting against a proposed bill to extradite people to mainland China, which critics fear would be used to prosecute dissidents.
The ban on individual visits will help Beijing limit mainlanders’ exposure to such views, which have attracted strong support from many Taiwanese and the island’s government.
Tsai and other Taiwanese politicians have argued that the recent unrest in the city shows that the “one country, two systems” model for reunification – which Beijing has suggested could be applied to the island in the future – has been a failure.
Taiwan began allowing solo travellers from the Chinese mainland to visit the island in 2011, three years after granting the same permission to tour groups.
The move was prompted by warmer relations with Beijing during the presidency of Ma Ying-jeou, from the mainland-friendly Kuomintang party.